Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe

Projected population change in European countries, 2015 to 2100

Note:
The map shows the projected change in total population in the EEA and western Balkan countries, 2015 to 2100

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The world’s population has almost tripled over the last 60 years, rising from ca. 2.5 billion in 1950 to around 7.3 billion in 2015 (Figure 1).

As shown in Figure 1, there is significant variation across the different UN projection variants as to how global population might develop over the coming decades. By 2050, global population is projected to be between 8.7 billion (‘low fertility’ projection variant) and 10.9 billion (‘constant fertility’ projection variant). Assuming the ‘medium fertility’ projection variant, global population is expected to increase to 9.7 billion by 2050.

The spread across the different UN projection variants increases further for the period 2050-2100, reflecting the increasing uncertainties inherent in such long-term projections. According to the ‘low fertility’ projection variant, global population might peak around 2050 and decrease to 7.3 billion by 2100, which is about its current size. At the other extreme, under the assumption of constant fertility rates (as estimated for the period 2010-2015) but increasing life expectancy (e.g. due to improved health care systems), global population could increase to as much as 26 billion by 2100. If both fertility rates and life expectancy remain constant between 2010 and 2015 (‘no change’ projection variant), global population could reach 19.3 billion by 2100. Assuming the ‘medium fertility’ projection variant — i.e. globally increasing life expectancy combined with increasing fertility rates in current low fertility regions but decreasing fertility rates in current very high fertility regions — global population is expected to increase to 11.2 billion by 2100 (Figure 1).

The huge spread across the UN projection variants towards the end of the 21st century also illustrates the effects of alternative assumptions related to fertility and mortality. For example, the considerably higher number for the ‘constant fertility’ compared to the ‘no change’ projection variant is due to the assumption that life expectancy will increase over time in the ‘constant fertility’ projection variant. Moreover, the lower values of the ‘high fertility’ projection variant, in comparison with the ‘constant fertility’ and ‘no change’ projection variants, illustrate that it actually assumes a considerable reduction in fertility rates in many countries, compared to current levels. The assumption of the medium variant, therefore, is that fertility rates will experience a stronger drop, compared to the assumption for the ‘high fertility’ projection variant.

A more detailed analysis of the ‘medium fertility’ scenario by world regions reveals that the projected increase in global population is largely driven by increases in Asia and Africa. The Asian population tripled between 1950 and2015, rising from 1.4 billion to 4.4 billion, and Asia is projected to remain the most populous world region throughout the 21st century (Figure 2). Its total population is projected to increase by about another billion to 5.3 billion by 2060, but to slightly decrease to 4.9 billion by 2100. Africa’s population has increased 5-fold from 1950 to 2015, rising from around 200 million to 1.2 billion, and is projected to grow substantially and continuously to 2.5 billion by 2050 and 4.4 billion by 2100 (Figure 2).

The population of the current EU-28 increased from 380 million in 1950 to 505 million in 2015 (Figure 3).

The ‘medium fertility’ projection variant assumes a relatively stable EU-28 population throughout the 21st century, with a slight increase to 510 million by 2030, and a decrease in subsequent decades to 465 million by 2100 (Figure 3). Other UN projection variants assume stronger changes in total EU population over time, and most of them predict a considerable population decline. The greatest declines occur under ‘low fertility’, and, particularly, under ‘no change’ assumptions. If fertility rates, life expectancy and migration rates stay at current levels, the EU-28 population will drop to 360 million by 2100, which would mean a loss of about 30 % of its current size. Only under ‘high fertility’ and ‘instant replacement’ assumptions, would the EU-28 population grow towards 2100 (to 680 million and 605 million, respectively, Figure 3).

Strongly linked to the projected trend of a decreasing EU population is the growing share of older individuals. The share of persons aged 65 years and older of the total EU population doubled from 1950 to 2015, rising from 8.9 % to 19.2 % (Figure 4). Over the coming decades, the EU ageing trend is projected to continue. By 2050, the share of persons aged 65 years and older is projected to be between 27 % (‘high fertility’ scenario) to 33 % (‘low fertility’ scenario), and might further increase to 41 % by 2100 under low fertility assumptions (Figure 4). Ageing populations are also projected to become a global phenomenon in the coming decades — for example, assuming the ‘medium fertility’ variant, the global share of persons aged 65 and older is projected to rise from 8.3 % currently to 16 % by 2050 and 23 % by 2100 (Figure 4).

Population trends across EU member countries are more complex, with the population of some countries projected to decrease significantly, while others are projected to increase between now and 2100. Thus, the national level assessment of this indicator is limited to exploring some of the most striking trends according to the ‘medium variant’ scenario. For example, by around 2050 Germany is projected to be replaced as the most populous EU member country by the United Kingdom (Figure 5). As the UK’s population increase is based, in part, upon substantial levels of immigration, it is an example of how migration might play a role in determining developments in population size across European countries over the coming decades. Other currently populous EU countries, such as Romania, Poland and Italy, are projected to experience a continuous and significant drop in population (Figure 5).

A comparison of changes in total population from 2010 to 2100 across the EU-28 and EEA member countries shows that eastern European countries in particular, but also countries such as Germany or Portugal, are projected to be affected by large-scale population decreases (see Figure 6). In contrast, the population size of many northern and western European countries is projected to rise. Particularly large increases are projected for Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, in part driven by assumptions about immigration and increased life expectancy.

Another assessment of EU population trends has been published recently by the European Commission (EC, 2014).

References

EC, 2014, The 2015 ageing report — Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies, European Economy, 8/2014, European Commission, Brussels.